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February 18, 2026
From Stabilization to Momentum: How 2026 Is Taking Shape
The mortgage industry has entered 2026 with a noticeably more constructive tone. The first month of the year has offered an early snapshot of what may define the cycle ahead: a market that is not flipping overnight, but one where momentum is beginning to return in a steady and measurable way. This is not shaping up to be a sudden bounce-back year. It is shaping up to be a build year, where brokers and correspondent partners who expand their product mix and move early will be positioned to gain real ground.
The rate distribution across homeowners is shifting. With more borrowers now above 6 percent than below 3 percent, fewer households are sitting on mortgages that feel impossible to give up, which could support healthier market movement over time.
At the same time, Non-QM continues to move from the margins into the mainstream. The data is clear. Non-QM mortgage production closed 2025 with record momentum, climbing to more than 9 percent of total lock volume. That is not a niche segment. It is a meaningful and growing share of today’s origination landscape.
This is why the strongest growth strategies in 2026 will be diversified. Purchase will remain critical, but brokers and correspondent partners who expand into investor and Non-QM lending will be positioned to perform across rate environments. The opportunity is already here, and it is being captured through purchase activity, investor lending, and borrowers whose income and documentation do not fit neatly inside conventional guidelines. Self-employed clients, real estate investors, and alternative income borrowers are not temporary market segments. They are a permanent part of the modern mortgage economy.
In this environment, consistency and speed matter more than ever. The lenders that win in 2026 will be the ones that simplify execution, deliver consistent underwriting, and provide certainty of close. Speed and reliability are not operational talking points. They are competitive advantages that directly impact market share for both brokers and correspondent partners.
At Arc Home, we have been investing throughout the year in the same areas the market is now prioritizing greater Non-QM capacity and pricing insight, faster and more consistent underwriting, and partner support that keeps the origination process clear, fast, and consistent. We head into 2026 prepared to execute- together.
- Brian Devlin, President/CEO